EUR/USD Presses as Supply Under 1.13333
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The technical evidence is concentrated around trend quality, volatility, and the position of price versus the moving-average stack. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13605 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at -0.08%. RSI14 is at 38.3, ATR14 is running near 0.00349, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16253. The weekly change of -0.29% is the larger backdrop, so the next daily close matters more than the first intraday reaction.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13605 |
| D1 change | -0.08% |
| D1 RSI14 | 38.3 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00349 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14013 / 1.14476 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16253 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.29% |
Execution note: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is soft and still needs repair, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is still heavy. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
Technical read
EUR/USD trades near 1.13562 with lower highs and lower lows H1 structure, lower highs and lower lows H4 structure and a bearish daily trend. The first useful support band is 1.13333/1.13245/1.13559, while the topside decision band is 1.13686/1.13768/1.13851. H1 RSI is 38.2 and stochastic is 1.2/25.6, so the report should treat momentum as balanced rather than forcing a one-line call.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.13719/1.13796, with MA50/100/200 at 1.13810/1.13902/1.14099. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14063/1.14638/1.16427. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 RSI is 38.2 and stochastic is 1.2/25.6. H1 ATR14 is 0.00073, so stops that sit inside normal hourly noise are vulnerable. H4 trend is bearish and D1 trend is bearish, which matters because intraday breaks that fight the daily frame need cleaner confirmation.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.13719/1.13796, with MA50/100/200 at 1.13810/1.13902/1.14099. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14063/1.14638/1.16427. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 structure is lower highs and lower lows, H4 is lower highs and lower lows, and D1 is higher highs and higher lows. Immediate support sits at 1.13333/1.13245/1.13559 and resistance at 1.13686/1.13768/1.13851. Daily PP is 1.13841, so price is currently below the daily bias line. This makes the next H1 close important: a close through the nearest level is more useful than a wick because the broader stack is H1 bearish, H4 bearish, D1 bearish.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The external news flow is useful here because it clusters around around inflation, commodity demand, central-bank policy, and geopolitical risk. EUR/USD carries a cautious-to-lower news bias because the headlines point to dollar support or pressure on the European side of the pair, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure behind the move. The practical read is to treat the headlines as a catalyst layer and use the pivot map for confirmation.
- Boj: core cpi excluding special factors rises 2.7% in june after may increase of 2.7%.
- Iraq generated revenues of $2.3b from oil sales in may and june.
- Libya unrest disrupts oil & gas operations civil unrest forced a halt to operations at libya's mellitah oil & gas complex after protesters stormed the facility. the shutdown disrupted key gas supply lines, prompting warnings of a potential regional blackout. mellitah is a critica.
- Us dollar bullish as tech pulls back ahead of fed. gm all we saw another fresh sell-off in technology stocks yesterday, which pushed the broader stock market lower. it looks like there is some uncertainty ahead of tomorrow s fed interest rate decision. as you know, there is a cha.
- Fed dissents could signal september hike investors are watching this week's fed vote for clues on interest rates. a 10-2 split is expected, with two officials backing a 25bp rate hike. if more than three members dissent, it could signal growing support for a september hike. still.
- Market awaits the fed decision: what s next for us dollar, gold, and oil?. hello, dear traders! today is tuesday, july 28, 2026, and we re going to walk through the key events that will shape currency market dynamics over the coming days. let s start with the us dollar. expectati.
- Japan s underlying inflation gauge shows 2.0% annual rise in june, boj says.
- Japan earthquake has preliminary magnitude of 7.1 nied tsunami warning has been issued; warning of 1m.
- Germany maps china s weaknesses in preparation for a trade war.
- Iraq exported 32.1m bbl of oil over may and june -oil ministry.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13841, with first resistance near 1.14015 and first support near 1.13502. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14025, with weekly R1 at 1.14414 and weekly S1 at 1.13556, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13841 | 1.14015 | 1.14354 | 1.14528 | 1.13502 | 1.13328 | 1.12989 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14025 | 1.14414 | 1.14883 | 1.15272 | 1.13556 | 1.13167 | 1.12698 |
Tactical read: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13502. Weekly pivot 1.14025 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13605 against the daily pivot at 1.13841, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
Across the hourly tape with price near 1.13605 favours caution on longs until the structure improves. The useful evidence is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13531-1.13630 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. A better signal would be the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Around the decision zone, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.13605 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13531-1.13801 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13605 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13531-1.14181 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14025. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Executive Market Read
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13562 with a balanced enough to require discipline around entries profile; the key issue is not the first move, but whether the next close confirms follow-through.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.13841, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13333 / 1.13245 / 1.13559, while the resistance band is 1.13686 / 1.13768 / 1.13851. Daily R1 at 1.14015 and S1 at 1.13502 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13629, the one-day change at -0.10%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13562 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is bearish, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13333 support versus 1.13686 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% at 28 Jul 13:00 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.7% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, Y/Y% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | ||
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 5.5 | 4 | |
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Consumer Confidence Index Cons Conf Idx | MEDIUM | 92 | 91.2 | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Durable Goods-SA, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | 2.1% | -4.5% |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 1.9% | 0.3% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.9% | 1.6% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | -4.6% | |
| 28 Jul 10:00 UTC | EUR | Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | -1.2% |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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