Research preview

The EU decision to extend sanctions on nearly 3,000 Russian companies and individuals for three years, rather than the usual six months, creates a new risk landscape for systematic investors. This article explains the market‑level effects of the policy shift and shows how quantitative traders can adjust models, risk controls, and portfolio construction to remain robust. Shift in Expected Duration Increases Uncertainty When sanctions are renewed for only six months, market participants treat the event as a temporary shock. Prices may rebound quickly once the measures expire, and forward‑looking models assign a relatively low probability to long‑term disruption. Extending the horizon to three years removes that “reset” button. The probability...