Research preview

The stock market has shown a striking tendency to rally during October and November of midterm election years. Understanding the drivers behind this seasonal edge can give quantitative traders a systematic edge. Below we explore the economic and behavioral forces at play, translate them into a risk‑managed trading framework, and end with concrete steps to test the signal in your own models. The Historical Seasonal Signal Empirical data over multiple decades reveal that the combined return of major equity indices during the two‑month window surrounding the midterm elections is markedly higher than the calendar average....