Research preview

The Nifty index has now closed below its weekly opening price for ten consecutive weeks, a pattern never observed in its recorded history. This unprecedented streak raises questions about market structure, the reliability of traditional technical signals, and how high‑dimensional machine‑learning tools can help traders adapt to a regime shift. Why the Ten‑Week Streak Matters A weekly open‑close gap is a simple binary indicator: if the close is above the open, the week is bullish; if below, bearish. Over long histories, the probability of a close above the open is roughly 55 %, reflecting a modest upward drift. Observing ten weeks in a row below the open is statistically extraordinary....