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254bp. That is the distance between USDJPY and the rate differential that explained it for a decade. The US 10-year is at 5.24%, the 2s10s spread at +45bp, and the yen has not followed. This note maps the curve, the carry, and the trade. The read: curve first, then carry, then the pair. On that sequence, USDJPY is 254bp off fair value. The US curve: level, slope, mechanism US 2s10s sits at +45bp — the 10-year at 5.242%, the 2-year at 4.791%. Over the past 20 sessions the spread has steepened 20bp, led by the long end, not the front — a term-premium move, not an easing signal....