How the Rupee’s Six‑Month Surge Informs High‑Dimensional ML Models for FX Returns

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How the Rupee’s Six‑Month Surge Informs High‑Dimensional ML Models for FX Returns

Research preview

The Indian rupee posted its strongest daily gain against the U.S. dollar in six months, a move that surprised many traders. This event provides a concrete backdrop for illustrating how high‑dimensional machine‑learning techniques can be used to capture and predict foreign‑exchange dynamics while guarding against over‑fitting. From a Single Shock to a Data‑Rich Problem A sharp appreciation of a currency is rarely the result of a single factor. Macro news, capital‑flow shifts, commodity price changes, and market sentiment all move together, generating a high‑dimensional information set....

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