A 261bp Wedge: Why USDJPY Stopped Following the Bond Market
Research preview
The US curve is positively sloped again at +33bp, but the composition is the story: the 10-year at 5.05% did the work, not the front end. That is a term-premium repricing, not an easing signal. Against it, USDJPY sits near 157.963 while its 10-year carry has compressed — a 261bp gap between price and rates. This note maps the curve across four markets, both legs of the yen carry trade, and the levels that frame the trade. The read: USDJPY is 261bp expensive to rates. That defines the asymmetry, not the timing; pay-up is now the crowded side....
Client research
Register free or login to read the full report
Registration is free. The full report includes chart snapshots, level work, technical tables, catalyst context, and the complete desk read.
Chat with XTRSK
Chat ready
Start a chat and the XTRSK team will be notified immediately.