EUR/USD Around 1.13942 with Confirmation Needed
Scenario plan
| Scenario | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | D1 close above 1.14150, then retest holds. | Back below pivot 1.14090 |
| Range continuation | Price keeps rejecting both nearest support and resistance. | Clean D1 close outside the range |
| Bearish continuation | D1 close below 1.13942, then failed retest. | Back above pivot 1.14090 |
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot grid matters because it turns the directional read into a measurable decision area. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.14090, with first resistance near 1.14238 and first support near 1.13965. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14283, with weekly R1 at 1.14814 and weekly S1 at 1.13741, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.14090 | 1.14238 | 1.14363 | 1.14511 | 1.13965 | 1.13817 | 1.13692 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14283 | 1.14814 | 1.15356 | 1.15887 | 1.13741 | 1.13210 | 1.12668 |
Confirmation check: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13965. Weekly pivot 1.14283 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
Desk Interpretation
EUR/USD is trading near 1.14044 with a directional but not yet free of two-way risk profile; the market is asking whether the latest move has enough acceptance to become continuation.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.14090, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13942 / 1.13825 / 1.13617, while the resistance band is 1.14150 / 1.14238 / 1.14328. Daily R1 at 1.14238 and S1 at 1.13965 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13683, the one-day change at -0.35%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.14044 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13942 support versus 1.14150 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is EUR FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator Consumer Conf Idx at 23 Jul 14:00 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The news tape is giving a clearer macro cue around inflation, commodity demand, central-bank policy, and geopolitical risk. EUR/USD carries a cautious-to-lower news bias because the headlines point to dollar support or pressure on the European side of the pair, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure behind the move. That makes the technical map more important, not less important, because price still has to confirm the macro story.
- Global bond yields jump as oil prices surge, inflation fears mount.
- Two chinese oil tankers carrying saudi crude are heading toward the red sea's bab el mandeb strait.
- Eu's kallas: have hit more than a hundred banks and crypto operators, over 40 shadow fleet vessels, and several oil refineries in russia and belarus.
- Traders boost boe bets, fully price 75bps of hikes by mid-2027.
- Traders boost boe bets, fully price 75bps of hikes by mid-2027.
- Traders fully price two quarter-point ecb hikes by year-end.
- Eu countries agree to freeze russia oil price for 12 months.
- Eu countries agree to freeze the russia oil price cap for 12 months.
- Morning all! – the us and iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night; us president trump said iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. – yemeni houthis targeted two saudi oil tankers in the red sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have s.
- Zeyoudi: uae should announce trade deal with canada this week.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13946 against the daily pivot at 1.14090, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
H1 price action is trading softer: sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13833-1.14065 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, and price is testing support near S1 1.13965.
D1 price action is under pressure and still level-dependent: latest close 1.13946 (-0.15% from the prior candle), sellers closed the latest candle below its open, and price is testing support near S1 1.13965.
W1 price action keeps the broader context heavy: the recent sequence is still leaning lower, with the current close near 1.13946 and price remains below pivot 1.14283.
Technical read
EUR/USD trades near 1.14044 with higher highs and higher lows H1 structure, lower highs and lower lows H4 structure and a bearish daily trend. The first useful support band is 1.13942/1.13825/1.13617, while the topside decision band is 1.14150/1.14238/1.14328. H1 RSI is 44.5 and stochastic is 4.3/15.3, so the report should treat momentum as balanced rather than forcing a one-line call.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.14160/1.14150, with MA50/100/200 at 1.14111/1.14191/1.14242. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14264/1.14809/1.16479. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 RSI is 44.5 and stochastic is 4.3/15.3. H1 ATR14 is 0.00078, so stops that sit inside normal hourly noise are vulnerable. H4 trend is bearish and D1 trend is bearish, which matters because intraday breaks that fight the daily frame need cleaner confirmation.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.14160/1.14150, with MA50/100/200 at 1.14111/1.14191/1.14242. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14264/1.14809/1.16479. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 structure is higher highs and higher lows, H4 is lower highs and lower lows, and D1 is range compression. Immediate support sits at 1.13942/1.13825/1.13617 and resistance at 1.14150/1.14238/1.14328. Daily PP is 1.14090, so price is currently below the daily bias line. This makes the next H1 close important: a close through the nearest level is more useful than a wick because the broader stack is H1 mixed, H4 bearish, D1 bearish.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 14:00 UTC | EUR | FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator Consumer Conf Idx | HIGH | -17.7 | ||
| 23 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) | HIGH | 34 billions | 41 billions | |
| 23 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) | HIGH | 3058 billions | 3024 billions | |
| 24 Jul 06:00 UTC | EUR | GfK consumer climate survey Consumer Conf Idx | MEDIUM | -28.1 | -29.2 | |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 51.1 | 50.7 | |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 48 | 47.4 | |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Composite | HIGH | 47.8 | 47.6 | |
| 24 Jul 07:30 UTC | EUR | Germany Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 50.5 | 50 | |
| 24 Jul 07:30 UTC | EUR | Germany Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 49.1 | 46.8 | |
| 24 Jul 07:30 UTC | EUR | Germany Flash PMI PMI, Composite | HIGH | 49.7 | 48 | |
| 24 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Eurozone Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 51.5 | 51.3 | |
| 24 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Eurozone Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 50 | 48.9 |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The indicator mix is useful because it separates momentum quality from simple price location. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13946 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at -0.15%. RSI14 is at 41.5, ATR14 is running near 0.00393, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16330. The weekly change of 0.20% is the larger backdrop, so the next daily close matters more than the first intraday reaction.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13946 |
| D1 change | -0.15% |
| D1 RSI14 | 41.5 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00393 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14226 / 1.14652 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16330 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | 0.20% |
Conviction check: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is supportive. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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