EUR/USD Breaks Past 1.13680 on Fresh Signal
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 06:00 UTC | EUR | GfK consumer climate survey Consumer Conf Idx | MEDIUM | -28.1 | -29.2 | |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 51.1 | 50.7 | |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 48 | 47.4 | |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Composite | HIGH | 47.8 | 47.6 | |
| 24 Jul 07:30 UTC | EUR | Germany Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 50.5 | 50 | |
| 24 Jul 07:30 UTC | EUR | Germany Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 49.1 | 46.8 | |
| 24 Jul 07:30 UTC | EUR | Germany Flash PMI PMI, Composite | HIGH | 49.7 | 48 | |
| 24 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Eurozone Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 50 | 48.9 | |
| 24 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Eurozone Flash PMI PMI, Composite | HIGH | 50.2 | 49.5 | |
| 24 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Eurozone Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 51.5 | 51.3 | |
| 24 Jul 13:45 UTC | USD | US Flash Manufacturing PMI PMI, Mfg | MEDIUM | 54.4 | 55.7 | |
| 24 Jul 13:45 UTC | USD | US Flash Services PMI PMI, Services | MEDIUM | 51.5 | 51.3 |
Desk Interpretation
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13798 with a directional but not yet free of two-way risk profile; the market is asking whether the latest move has enough acceptance to become continuation.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.14090, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13680 / 1.13540 / 1.13333, while the resistance band is 1.13955 / 1.14039 / 1.14121. Daily R1 at 1.14238 and S1 at 1.13965 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13740, the one-day change at -0.30%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13798 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is bearish, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13680 support versus 1.13955 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is EUR GfK consumer climate survey Consumer Conf Idx at 24 Jul 06:00 UTC, awaited with consensus -28.1, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The news tape is giving a clearer macro cue around central-bank policy and inflation. EUR/USD is not getting a clean directional push from the headlines; the bias is neutral-to-range until the next candle confirms acceptance above resistance or below support. For the trade plan, the news gives direction of risk while the chart decides whether that risk is tradable.
- Fed bids for 4-week bills total $6.6 bln.
- Freeport-mcmoran: company's copper sales seen rising in h2 2026, throughout 2027 and 2028 || assuming q3 diesel prices in to be 'pretty similar to what we experienced' in q2 ||| 'we will be subject to volatility in the oil markets'.
- Kansas city fed manufacturing actual 17 (forecast -, previous 19) $macro.
- Kansas city fed composite index actual 9 (forecast 12, previous 11) $macro.
- Carrefour q2/h1 26 earnings: q2 sales up 1.9% like-for-like at eur22.71b – q2 sales in france up 1% like-for-like – h1 sales including vat: eur43.79b – h1 recuring operating income: eur757m (est eur779m) – h1 operating income: eur606m – h1 adjusted net income group share eur345m.
- 21st sanction package against russia passed by european union countries through written procedures, as reported by the council of eu.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot grid matters because it turns the directional read into a measurable decision area. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.14090, with first resistance near 1.14238 and first support near 1.13965. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14283, with weekly R1 at 1.14814 and weekly S1 at 1.13741, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.14090 | 1.14238 | 1.14363 | 1.14511 | 1.13965 | 1.13817 | 1.13692 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14283 | 1.14814 | 1.15356 | 1.15887 | 1.13741 | 1.13210 | 1.12668 |
Confirmation check: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13965. Weekly pivot 1.14283 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The technical sheet is best read as a pressure map rather than a single directional call. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13798 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at -0.28%. RSI14 is at 39.0, ATR14 is running near 0.00407, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16329. With the completed weekly candle at 0.20%, intraday conviction still needs support from the higher-timeframe structure.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13798 |
| D1 change | -0.28% |
| D1 RSI14 | 39.0 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00407 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14211 / 1.14647 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16329 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | 0.20% |
Conviction check: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is soft and still needs repair, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is supportive. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13798 against the daily pivot at 1.14090, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
Across the hourly tape with price near 1.13798 favours caution on longs until the structure improves. The useful evidence is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13725-1.13801 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price is testing support near S1 1.13965. A better signal would be the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Around the decision zone, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.13798 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13637-1.14356 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price is testing support near S1 1.13965. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13798 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13637-1.14495 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14283. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Scenario plan
| Scenario | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | D1 close above 1.13955, then retest holds. | Back below pivot 1.14090 |
| Range continuation | Price keeps rejecting both nearest support and resistance. | Clean D1 close outside the range |
| Bearish continuation | D1 close below 1.13680, then failed retest. | Back above pivot 1.14090 |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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