EUR/USD Past 1.13780 with Follow-Through Watch
Market Decision Area
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13890 with a constructive but still confirmation-led profile; the useful edge is in the reaction around levels, not in chasing the headline move.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.13915, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13780 / 1.13680 / 1.13540, while the resistance band is 1.13993 / 1.14075 / 1.14159. Daily R1 at 1.14192 and S1 at 1.13473 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13748, the one-day change at -0.07%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13890 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13780 support versus 1.13993 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD US Flash Manufacturing PMI PMI, Mfg at 24 Jul 13:45 UTC, awaited with consensus 54.4, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The linked stories point to a market that is reacting mainly to around inflation and central-bank policy. EUR/USD carries a cautious-to-lower news bias because the headlines point to dollar support or pressure on the European side of the pair, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure behind the move. This improves the context, but follow-through still depends on price holding the relevant support or resistance area.
- Ecb's simkus: $100 oil will have repercussions on inflation.
- Fomc preview: fed to stay on hold after june s hawkish shift. while the recent surge in oil prices has led markets to increase their expectations of a federal reserve , june s data came in well below forecasts, and labour market figures were softer than anticipated. as a result,.
- Eurozone ecb 1 year cpi expectations jun: 3.0% (est 3.2%; prev 3.5%) – ecb 3 year cpi expectations: 2.8% (est 2.9%; prev 2.9%).
- Ecb's kocher: ecb will act if inflation outlook deteriorates.
- Euro area june 1-year cpi expectations fall to 3%; est. 3.2%.
- Ecb's simkus: inflation seen higher than target for a long time.
- Ecb's simkus: we do not see second-round effects of higher inflation.
- Ecb's simkus: in september, again we'll have additional inflation data.
- Ecb's simkus: still see probability of rate hike higher than hold.
- Ecb's simkus: inflationary environment has increased.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The technical evidence is concentrated around trend quality, volatility, and the position of price versus the moving-average stack. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13830 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at 0.06%. RSI14 is at 40.2, ATR14 is running near 0.00390, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16312. The weekly change of 0.20% is the larger backdrop, so the next daily close matters more than the first intraday reaction.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13830 |
| D1 change | 0.06% |
| D1 RSI14 | 40.2 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00390 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14172 / 1.14613 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16312 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | 0.20% |
Indicator read: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is supportive. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13915, with first resistance near 1.14192 and first support near 1.13473. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14283, with weekly R1 at 1.14814 and weekly S1 at 1.13741, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13915 | 1.14192 | 1.14634 | 1.14911 | 1.13473 | 1.13196 | 1.12754 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14283 | 1.14814 | 1.15356 | 1.15887 | 1.13741 | 1.13210 | 1.12668 |
Decision map: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13473. Weekly pivot 1.14283 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13830 against the daily pivot at 1.13915, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.13830 keeps the upside case alive while pullbacks stay controlled. The quality of the move depends on sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13809-1.13928 candle range, the recent sequence is still pressing higher, while price remains below pivot 1.13915. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The daily candle with price near 1.13830 is balanced and still waiting for a decisive close. The cleaner clue is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13750-1.14011 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, while price remains below pivot 1.13915. The setup gets cleaner with the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For execution timing, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13830 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13637-1.14495 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14283. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Dollar And Cross-Market Filter
Dollar-index candles show the DXY proxy firming near 101.198 over the sampled window. A firming dollar can add pressure to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and silver, while a softer dollar can relieve it. This cross-market context is best read as confirmation rather than a standalone signal.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 13:45 UTC | USD | US Flash Manufacturing PMI PMI, Mfg | MEDIUM | 54.4 | 55.7 | |
| 24 Jul 13:45 UTC | USD | US Flash Services PMI PMI, Services | MEDIUM | 51.5 | 51.3 | |
| 24 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | New Residential Sales New Home Sales, M/M% | MEDIUM | 4.5% | -7.3% | |
| 24 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | New Residential Sales New Home Sales Months Supply | MEDIUM | 10.3 | ||
| 24 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | New Residential Sales New Home Sales | MEDIUM | 606 thousands | 580 thousands | |
| 23 Jul 12:15 UTC | EUR | ECB interest rate announcement Refi Rate | HIGH | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
| 23 Jul 12:15 UTC | EUR | ECB interest rate announcement Deposit Rate | HIGH | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 23 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) NAI | MEDIUM | -0.02 | -0.19 | |
| 23 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims Jobless Claims, Net Chg | MEDIUM | -22 thousands | -8 thousands | |
| 23 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | 187 thousands | 212 thousands | 208 thousands |
| 23 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg | MEDIUM | -0.05 | -0.1 | |
| 23 Jul 14:00 UTC | EUR | FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator Consumer Conf Idx | HIGH | -15.9 | -17.6 |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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