EUR/USD Retreat Past 1.13725
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The technical evidence is concentrated around trend quality, volatility, and the position of price versus the moving-average stack. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13830 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at 0.06%. RSI14 is at 40.2, ATR14 is running near 0.00390, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16312. The weekly change of 0.20% is the larger backdrop, so the next daily close matters more than the first intraday reaction.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13830 |
| D1 change | 0.06% |
| D1 RSI14 | 40.2 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00390 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14172 / 1.14613 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16312 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | 0.20% |
Technical conclusion: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is supportive. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
Technical read
EUR/USD trades near 1.13830 with range compression H1 structure, lower highs and lower lows H4 structure and a bearish daily trend. The first useful support band is 1.13725/1.13637/1.13540, while the topside decision band is 1.13955/1.14039/1.14121. H1 RSI is 57.0 and stochastic is 37.2/44.3, so the report should treat momentum as balanced rather than forcing a one-line call.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.13851/1.13939, with MA50/100/200 at 1.13978/1.14057/1.14216. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14198/1.14760/1.16467. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to accumulation on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 RSI is 57.0 and stochastic is 37.2/44.3. H1 ATR14 is 0.00078, so stops that sit inside normal hourly noise are vulnerable. H4 trend is bearish and D1 trend is bearish, which matters because intraday breaks that fight the daily frame need cleaner confirmation.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.13851/1.13939, with MA50/100/200 at 1.13978/1.14057/1.14216. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14198/1.14760/1.16467. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to accumulation on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 structure is range compression, H4 is lower highs and lower lows, and D1 is higher highs and higher lows. Immediate support sits at 1.13725/1.13637/1.13540 and resistance at 1.13955/1.14039/1.14121. Daily PP is 1.13915, so price is currently below the daily bias line. This makes the next H1 close important: a close through the nearest level is more useful than a wick because the broader stack is H1 bearish, H4 bearish, D1 bearish.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The news tape is giving a clearer macro cue around inflation and central-bank policy. EUR/USD carries a cautious-to-lower news bias because the headlines point to dollar support or pressure on the European side of the pair, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure behind the move. For the trade plan, the news gives direction of risk while the chart decides whether that risk is tradable.
- Ecb's simkus: $100 oil will have repercussions on inflation.
- The correlation between ecb policy and the oil price has always been a joke, but the single mandate leaves no other option. rates markets at least respond transparently. fx is a mess. the euro has traded in a tight range through july. every dollar weakness attempt is met with mis.
- Fomc preview: fed to stay on hold after june s hawkish shift. while the recent surge in oil prices has led markets to increase their expectations of a federal reserve , june s data came in well below forecasts, and labour market figures were softer than anticipated. as a result,.
- Eurozone ecb 1 year cpi expectations jun: 3.0% (est 3.2%; prev 3.5%) – ecb 3 year cpi expectations: 2.8% (est 2.9%; prev 2.9%).
- Ecb's kocher: ecb will act if inflation outlook deteriorates.
- Euro area june 1-year cpi expectations fall to 3%; est. 3.2%.
- Boe to hold bank rate at 3.75% on july 30th all 70 economists said – poll.
- Boe to hold bank rate steady at 3.75% through to middle of next year, medians showed – poll.
- Ecb's simkus: inflation seen higher than target for a long time.
- Ecb's simkus: we do not see second-round effects of higher inflation.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13915, with first resistance near 1.14192 and first support near 1.13473. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14283, with weekly R1 at 1.14814 and weekly S1 at 1.13741, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13915 | 1.14192 | 1.14634 | 1.14911 | 1.13473 | 1.13196 | 1.12754 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14283 | 1.14814 | 1.15356 | 1.15887 | 1.13741 | 1.13210 | 1.12668 |
Pivot conclusion: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13473. Weekly pivot 1.14283 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13830 against the daily pivot at 1.13915, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.13830 keeps the upside case alive while pullbacks stay controlled. The quality of the move depends on sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13809-1.13928 candle range, the recent sequence is still pressing higher, while price remains below pivot 1.13915. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The daily candle with price near 1.13830 is balanced and still waiting for a decisive close. The cleaner clue is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13750-1.14011 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, while price remains below pivot 1.13915. The setup gets cleaner with the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For execution timing, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13830 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13637-1.14495 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14283. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Market Structure Brief
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13830 with a tradable only if price keeps respecting the confirmation zone profile; the cleaner read comes from acceptance around the pivot map rather than a single candle.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.13915, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13725 / 1.13637 / 1.13540, while the resistance band is 1.13955 / 1.14039 / 1.14121. Daily R1 at 1.14192 and S1 at 1.13473 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13678, the one-day change at -0.08%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13830 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is bearish, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13725 support versus 1.13955 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD US Flash Services PMI PMI, Services at 24 Jul 13:45 UTC, awaited with consensus 51.5, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 13:45 UTC | USD | US Flash Services PMI PMI, Services | MEDIUM | 51.5 | 51.3 | |
| 24 Jul 13:45 UTC | USD | US Flash Manufacturing PMI PMI, Mfg | MEDIUM | 54.4 | 55.7 | |
| 24 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | New Residential Sales New Home Sales | MEDIUM | 606 thousands | 580 thousands | |
| 24 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | New Residential Sales New Home Sales Months Supply | MEDIUM | 10.3 | ||
| 24 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | New Residential Sales New Home Sales, M/M% | MEDIUM | 4.5% | -7.3% | |
| 23 Jul 14:00 UTC | EUR | FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator Consumer Conf Idx | HIGH | -15.9 | -17.6 | |
| 23 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) | HIGH | 3056 billions | 3058 billions | 3024 billions |
| 23 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) | HIGH | 32 billions | 34 billions | 41 billions |
| 24 Jul 06:00 UTC | EUR | GfK consumer climate survey Consumer Conf Idx | MEDIUM | -29.6 | -28.1 | -29.3 |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Composite | HIGH | 49.6 | 47.8 | 47.2 |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Services | HIGH | 49.8 | 48 | 46.8 |
| 24 Jul 07:15 UTC | EUR | France Flash PMI PMI, Mfg | HIGH | 50 | 51.1 | 51.2 |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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