EUR/USD Downside Around 1.13540 as Structure Tightens
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 10:00 UTC | EUR | Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% | MEDIUM | -1.2% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.7% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, Y/Y% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | ||
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 5.5 | 4 | |
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Consumer Confidence Index Cons Conf Idx | MEDIUM | 92 | 91.2 | |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Business Expectations Idx | HIGH | 86.7 | 84.3 | 84.3 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Current Conditions Idx | HIGH | 86.5 | 87.3 | 87 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Business Sentiment Idx | HIGH | 86.6 | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) M3 | MEDIUM | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) Loans to Firms | MEDIUM | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Durable Goods-SA, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | 2.1% | -4.5% |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 1.9% | 0.3% |
Research Desk View
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13691 with a level-sensitive, with momentum and macro risk both important profile; the setup now depends on whether buyers or sellers can defend the first decision band.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.13841, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13540 / 1.13333 / 1.13245, while the resistance band is 1.13795 / 1.13876 / 1.13957. Daily R1 at 1.14015 and S1 at 1.13502 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13718, the one-day change at -0.28%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13691 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is bearish, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13540 support versus 1.13795 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is EUR Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% at 28 Jul 10:00 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The news tape is giving a clearer macro cue around dollar direction and central-bank policy. EUR/USD carries a cautious-to-lower news bias because the headlines point to dollar support or pressure on the European side of the pair, with central-bank expectations and commodity pressure behind the move. The next test is whether candles and pivots accept that story or fade it after the first reaction.
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EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13841, with first resistance near 1.14015 and first support near 1.13502. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14025, with weekly R1 at 1.14414 and weekly S1 at 1.13556, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13841 | 1.14015 | 1.14354 | 1.14528 | 1.13502 | 1.13328 | 1.12989 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14025 | 1.14414 | 1.14883 | 1.15272 | 1.13556 | 1.13167 | 1.12698 |
Tactical read: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13502. Weekly pivot 1.14025 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The technical profile is strongest when the daily close, moving averages, and oscillator readings agree. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13743 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at 0.05%. RSI14 is at 41.1, ATR14 is running near 0.00336, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16254. The completed W1 move at -0.29% means the daily setup should be judged against the wider trend boundary.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13743 |
| D1 change | 0.05% |
| D1 RSI14 | 41.1 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00336 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14026 / 1.14482 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16254 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.29% |
Execution note: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is still heavy. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13743 against the daily pivot at 1.13841, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.13743 is more useful as a level map than a momentum signal for now. The quality of the move depends on buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13665-1.13743 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.13743 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13665-1.13743 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13743 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13664-1.14181 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14025. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Scenario plan
| Scenario | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | D1 close above 1.13795, then retest holds. | Back below pivot 1.13841 |
| Range continuation | Price keeps rejecting both nearest support and resistance. | Clean D1 close outside the range |
| Bearish continuation | D1 close below 1.13540, then failed retest. | Back above pivot 1.13841 |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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