EUR/USD Momentum Around 1.13668
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The external news flow is useful here because it clusters around around inflation, commodity demand, and central-bank policy. EUR/USD is not getting a clean directional push from the headlines; the bias is neutral-to-range until the next candle confirms acceptance above resistance or below support. This improves the context, but follow-through still depends on price holding the relevant support or resistance area.
- Rba governor bullock: the board remains willing to increase interest rates further if inflationary pressures do not ease as expected.
- Saudi aramco considers new oil pricing to reflect higher freight costs for cargoes loading from egypt's sidi kerir to asia – rtrs.
- Reserve bank of australia chief: persistent inflation would create difficult decisions for board.
- Rba governor bullock: board faces tough choices if inflation doesn t ease.
- Rba governor bullock: inflation is largely in line with expectations.
- Katayama says takaichi government maintains boj agreement signed during abe era.
- Japan finance minister katayama: pm takaichi has continued boj agreement signed under abe administration.
- Rba s bullock says economy cooling, unsure if rates high enough bbg.
- Rba governor bullock: the broader economic consequences of the oil price shock remain uncertain at this stage.
- Rba governor bullock: core inflation trends have developed broadly as expected but are still above desired levels.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 10:00 UTC | EUR | Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% | MEDIUM | -1.2% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.7% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, Y/Y% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | ||
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 5.5 | 4 | |
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Consumer Confidence Index Cons Conf Idx | MEDIUM | 92 | 91.2 | |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Business Expectations Idx | HIGH | 86.7 | 84.3 | 84.3 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Current Conditions Idx | HIGH | 86.5 | 87.3 | 87 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Business Sentiment Idx | HIGH | 86.6 | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) M3 | MEDIUM | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) Loans to Firms | MEDIUM | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Durable Goods-SA, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | 2.1% | -4.5% |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 1.9% | 0.3% |
Dollar And Cross-Market Filter
Dollar-index candles show the DXY proxy firming near 101.292 over the sampled window. A firming dollar can add pressure to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and silver, while a softer dollar can relieve it. This cross-market context is best read as confirmation rather than a standalone signal.
Opening Read
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13769 with a active, with the first reaction less important than the retest profile; the immediate question is whether price is building acceptance or merely reacting inside the existing range.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.13841, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13668 / 1.13540 / 1.13333, while the resistance band is 1.13872 / 1.13955 / 1.14051. Daily R1 at 1.14015 and S1 at 1.13502 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13704, the one-day change at -0.04%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13769 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is bearish, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13668 support versus 1.13872 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is EUR Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% at 28 Jul 10:00 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The indicator table points to where conviction is improving and where the setup still needs confirmation. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13769 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at 0.07%. RSI14 is at 41.8, ATR14 is running near 0.00339, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16254. The last completed weekly candle was -0.29%, which keeps the short-term read tied to the broader weekly range.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13769 |
| D1 change | 0.07% |
| D1 RSI14 | 41.8 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00339 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14028 / 1.14483 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16254 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.29% |
Indicator read: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is still heavy. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13769 against the daily pivot at 1.13841, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.13769 is more useful as a level map than a momentum signal for now. The quality of the move depends on buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13712-1.13786 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.13769 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13665-1.13786 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13769 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13664-1.14181 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14025. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13841, with first resistance near 1.14015 and first support near 1.13502. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14025, with weekly R1 at 1.14414 and weekly S1 at 1.13556, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13841 | 1.14015 | 1.14354 | 1.14528 | 1.13502 | 1.13328 | 1.12989 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14025 | 1.14414 | 1.14883 | 1.15272 | 1.13556 | 1.13167 | 1.12698 |
Trading context: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13502. Weekly pivot 1.14025 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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