EUR/USD Retreat Watch From 1.13668
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The current indicator stack gives a cleaner read when it is compared with the pivot map rather than isolated. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13744 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at 0.05%. RSI14 is at 41.1, ATR14 is running near 0.00340, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16254. The last completed weekly candle was -0.29%, which keeps the short-term read tied to the broader weekly range.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13744 |
| D1 change | 0.05% |
| D1 RSI14 | 41.1 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00340 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14026 / 1.14482 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16254 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.29% |
Technical conclusion: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is still heavy. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
Level snapshot
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The external news flow is useful here because it clusters around around inflation, commodity demand, and central-bank policy. EUR/USD is not getting a clean directional push from the headlines; the bias is neutral-to-range until the next candle confirms acceptance above resistance or below support. That makes the technical map more important, not less important, because price still has to confirm the macro story.
- Rba governor bullock: the board remains willing to increase interest rates further if inflationary pressures do not ease as expected.
- Saudi aramco considers new oil pricing to reflect higher freight costs for cargoes loading from egypt's sidi kerir to asia – rtrs.
- Reserve bank of australia chief: persistent inflation would create difficult decisions for board.
- Rba governor bullock: board faces tough choices if inflation doesn t ease.
- Rba governor bullock: inflation is largely in line with expectations.
- Katayama says takaichi government maintains boj agreement signed during abe era.
- Japan finance minister katayama: pm takaichi has continued boj agreement signed under abe administration.
- Rba s bullock says economy cooling, unsure if rates high enough bbg.
- Rba governor bullock: the broader economic consequences of the oil price shock remain uncertain at this stage.
- Rba governor bullock: core inflation trends have developed broadly as expected but are still above desired levels.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13744 against the daily pivot at 1.13841, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.13744 is more useful as a level map than a momentum signal for now. The quality of the move depends on sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13736-1.13801 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.13744 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13665-1.13801 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13744 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13664-1.14181 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14025. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 10:00 UTC | EUR | Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% | MEDIUM | -1.2% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.7% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, Y/Y% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | ||
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 5.5 | 4 | |
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Consumer Confidence Index Cons Conf Idx | MEDIUM | 92 | 91.2 | |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Business Expectations Idx | HIGH | 86.7 | 84.3 | 84.3 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Current Conditions Idx | HIGH | 86.5 | 87.3 | 87 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | ifo Business Climate Index Business Sentiment Idx | HIGH | 86.6 | 85.7 | 85.7 |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) M3 | MEDIUM | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 27 Jul 08:00 UTC | EUR | Monetary developments in the euro area (M3) Loans to Firms | MEDIUM | 4% | 4% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Durable Goods-SA, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | 2.1% | -4.5% |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 1.9% | 0.3% |
Technical read
EUR/USD trades near 1.13769 with lower highs and lower lows H1 structure, lower highs and lower lows H4 structure and a bearish daily trend. The first useful support band is 1.13668/1.13540/1.13333, while the topside decision band is 1.13872/1.13955/1.14051. H1 RSI is 43.5 and stochastic is 52.5/35.8, so the report should treat momentum as balanced rather than forcing a one-line call.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.13773/1.13836, with MA50/100/200 at 1.13831/1.13928/1.14134. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14082/1.14646/1.16428. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 RSI is 43.5 and stochastic is 52.5/35.8. H1 ATR14 is 0.00076, so stops that sit inside normal hourly noise are vulnerable. H4 trend is bearish and D1 trend is bearish, which matters because intraday breaks that fight the daily frame need cleaner confirmation.
H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.13773/1.13836, with MA50/100/200 at 1.13831/1.13928/1.14134. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14082/1.14646/1.16428. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.
H1 structure is lower highs and lower lows, H4 is lower highs and lower lows, and D1 is higher highs and higher lows. Immediate support sits at 1.13668/1.13540/1.13333 and resistance at 1.13872/1.13955/1.14051. Daily PP is 1.13841, so price is currently below the daily bias line. This makes the next H1 close important: a close through the nearest level is more useful than a wick because the broader stack is H1 bearish, H4 bearish, D1 bearish.
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13841, with first resistance near 1.14015 and first support near 1.13502. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14025, with weekly R1 at 1.14414 and weekly S1 at 1.13556, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13841 | 1.14015 | 1.14354 | 1.14528 | 1.13502 | 1.13328 | 1.12989 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14025 | 1.14414 | 1.14883 | 1.15272 | 1.13556 | 1.13167 | 1.12698 |
Level read: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13502. Weekly pivot 1.14025 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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