EUR/USD Tests 1.14204-1.14405

July 10, 2026

EUR/USD has reached a zone where the next close and retest can clarify the short-term path.

EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief

The headline set is not neutral around inflation. EUR/USD has a mildly constructive news bias because the feed is leaning toward softer dollar expectations or firmer European currency demand, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure driving the repricing. The next test is whether candles and pivots accept that story or fade it after the first reaction.

1. Dollar slips after soft US inflation data – Reuters (Reuters)
2. Euro gains as softer US inflation weighs on US Dollar – FXStreet (FXStreet)
3. Euro Climbs Above .14 as Soft US Inflation Weakens Dollar – Forex Factory (Forex Factory)
4. U.S. Dollar Retreats As Inflation Rate Drops To 3.5%: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY – FXEmpire (FXEmpire)
5. EUR/USD: Euro Steady and Boring Near .14. Can US Inflation Data Stir the FX Board? – TradingView (TradingView)
6. EUR/USD forecast: Rising energy prices strengthen US dollar as downside risks for euro grows – FOREX.com (FOREX.com)
7. Eurozone inflation slows more than expected; Euro weakens – equiti.com (equiti.com)
8. Dollar struggles as softer inflation dims Fed hike bets By Reuters – Investing.com Canada (Investing.com Canada)
9. Euro jumps as softer-than-expected US CPI cools Fed rate-hike bets – TMGM trading (TMGM trading)
10. Euro gathers strength above 1.1400 after soft US inflation data – FXStreet (FXStreet)

EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts

EUR/USD is trading near 1.14304, with support near 1.14204 and resistance near 1.14405 setting the immediate decision area across the chart stack.

H1 price action is the intraday decision layer: price is working near 1.14304 while support near 1.14204 and resistance near 1.14405 define the next break-or-reject zone.

D1 price action keeps the session read level-dependent: a hold above support keeps buyers active, while rejection below resistance leaves the pair inside the current range.

W1 price action keeps the wider context in view: the broader move needs acceptance beyond the range edge before the next directional leg looks cleaner.

Upcoming and released data

Dollar context

Dollar-index candles show the DXY proxy softening near 100.635 over the sampled H1 window. That matters because a softening dollar can add pressure to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and silver, while a softer dollar can relieve it. Use that cross-market context as confirmation, not as a standalone signal.

Chart analysis

EUR/USD trades near 1.14304 with higher highs and higher lows H1 structure, range compression H4 structure and a bearish daily trend. The first useful support band is 1.14204/1.14123/1.14032, while the topside decision band is 1.14405/1.14491/1.14592. H1 RSI is 47.9 and stochastic is 14.2/31.5, leaving momentum balanced and still dependent on the next confirmed level break.

H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.14370/1.14312, with MA50/100/200 at 1.14268/1.14261/1.14205. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14426/1.15153/1.16557. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.

H1 RSI is 47.9 and stochastic is 14.2/31.5. H1 ATR14 is 0.00084, so stops that sit inside normal hourly noise are vulnerable. H4 trend is bullish and D1 trend is bearish, which matters because intraday breaks that fight the daily frame need cleaner confirmation.

H1 EMA20/EMA50 are 1.14370/1.14312, with MA50/100/200 at 1.14268/1.14261/1.14205. D1 EMA20/EMA50/MA200 are 1.14426/1.15153/1.16557. No fresh 20/50 EMA crossover is active. A/D points to distribution on H1 and distribution on D1. Treat this as confirmation, because tick volume is directional pressure rather than exchange volume.

H1 structure is higher highs and higher lows, H4 is range compression, and D1 is lower highs and lower lows. Immediate support sits at 1.14204/1.14123/1.14032 and resistance at 1.14405/1.14491/1.14592. Daily PP is 1.14302, so price is currently above the daily bias line. This makes the next H1 close important: a close through the nearest level is more useful than a wick because the broader stack is H1 mixed, H4 bullish, D1 bearish.

Initial summary

EUR/USD is near 1.14304 with a mixed directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is bullish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.14204 support versus 1.14405 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – Initial Claims Jobless Claims at 09 Jul 12:30 UTC, released at 215 thousands versus 218 thousands, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.

Risk framework

Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.

Charts, candles, pivots, indicators, calendar data, and headline links are used for market commentary and education only. This is market commentary for research and education, not investment advice or a promise of returns.