Research preview

Risk And Invalidation Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest. GBPJPY News And Catalyst Brief The news tape is giving a clearer macro cue around inflation and central-bank policy. GBPJPY has a balanced headline read, with inflation data and central-bank expectations setting the volatility backdrop. Final bias: neutral until price accepts a level outside the current pivot range. The next test is whether candles and pivots accept that story or fade it after the first reaction. Ecb's cipollone: risk of economic stagnation and sharp inflation rise is rather remote....