Research preview

The upcoming Mid‑Autumn Festival in China is projected to generate roughly 650 million cross‑regional passenger trips. Such a massive, predictable flow of people creates distinct patterns in transportation‑related securities, consumer spending, and ancillary services. This article shows how quantitative traders can model the holiday effect, avoid over‑fitting, and extract risk‑adjusted returns. Understanding the Holiday Demand Shock The travel spike is a classic example of a seasonal demand shock. Historical data show that during previous festivals, airline load factors, high‑speed rail ticket volumes, and hotel occupancy rise sharply for a period of about ten days, then revert to baseline....