Curve, Carry, and the 264bp Gap: A Full Bond-Market Read
Research preview
The bond market moved first. The US 10-year is at 5.25%, the curve is +46bp, and USDJPY is running 264bp rich to its own carry. That is the setup: a rates repricing the yen has not answered. Below, the curve across four markets, the carry pair by pair, and the levels that frame the trade. The read: this is a repricing, not a forecast. USDJPY is 264bp rich to carry; the spread decides when that matters. What the US curve just did US 2s10s sits at +46bp — the 10-year at 5.251%, the 2-year at 4.789%....
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