Research preview

The announcement of a fresh Yemeni military offensive against Houthi‑held territories adds a sharp geopolitical shock to global markets. For quantitative traders, the challenge is to translate such narrative risk into measurable signals that can be incorporated into models without over‑fitting. This article shows how high‑dimensional regression, regularisation, and debiased machine learning can turn a news event like the Yemen escalation into a systematic edge. From News to Numbers: Encoding a Conflict Event The first step is to convert the textual headline into a numeric predictor that can be fed to a statistical model....