The 10-Year Is Doing the Talking — and USDJPY Is Not Listening
Research preview
Three facts define the yen crosses right now. The US 10-year is at 5.34%, the 2s10s spread is +52bp, and USDJPY is about 257bp rich to the rate differential that used to drive it. Read together, they describe a term-premium repricing the FX market has not fully priced. Here is the curve, the carry, and the levels. The read: a duration-led repricing the FX market has not answered. USDJPY carries the clearest 257bp gap. The US curve, in context US 2s10s sits at +52bp — the 10-year at 5.345%, the 2-year at 4.821%....
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