Research preview

India’s imports of Russian crude fell to just 3.1 lakh barrels per day in the week ending 4 October, an 87 percent drop from the July peak and the lowest level since March 2022. The shift reshapes the supply‑demand balance in the Asian market and creates new statistical patterns for quantitative strategies. This article unpacks the market dynamics, quantifies the risk‑return impact, and outlines actionable steps for traders. The Supply Shock and Its Immediate Price Signals The 87 percent contraction in Russian shipments translates into a reduction of roughly 2.7 lakh barrels per day relative to the July high....