Research preview

The upcoming United Nations General Assembly visit by the Iranian president raises geopolitical risk that can quickly spill over into equity markets worldwide. For quantitative traders, such events are a reminder that macro‑driven regime shifts must be incorporated into high‑dimensional models, otherwise forecasts can become dangerously over‑fitted to a calm‑period history. This article shows how to translate the news shock into a disciplined machine‑learning workflow, using the same principles taught in advanced finance data courses. From News to Predictors: Building a Real‑Time Feature Set The first step is to translate the political headline into measurable variables. Typical choices include: Daily counts of news articles mentioning “Iran”, “UNGA”, and “US‑Iran” from...