Research preview

The unexpected resignation of a head of state creates a sharp shock to markets, especially when the successor is likely to reshape fiscal and regulatory policy. For quantitative traders, the event offers a natural laboratory to test high‑dimensional models that combine macro‑economic indicators, sentiment data, and historical political‑risk patterns. This article explains how to structure such an analysis, why regularisation matters, and which practical steps to embed the insight into a trading workflow. Framing the Event as a Predictive Problem Treat the resignation as a binary signal that may affect asset returns in the days and weeks that follow....