Research preview

The surprise drop in the leading candidate’s probability of winning an election mirrors the dynamics of high‑frequency trading races. Both arenas involve rapid information updates, asymmetric speed advantages, and a small but persistent cost to participants. Understanding the mechanics of latency arbitrage helps quantify the hidden “tax” that political forecasters and traders alike pay for being slower. The Parallel Between Election Forecasts and Latency Arbitrage Election probabilities are updated continuously as new polls, statements, and events arrive. Each update is analogous to a market message that either improves or erodes a participant’s position....