Research preview

The reopening of Libya’s Zawiya refinery after a six‑day shutdown provides a real‑time case study for quantitative traders. The event alters supply dynamics, price expectations, and the risk profile of related securities, offering a natural laboratory to apply portfolio theory, asset‑pricing models, and relative‑value strategies taught in advanced investment courses. Supply Shock and Immediate Price Reaction When valve 7 was closed, crude flow through the Sharara‑Zawiya pipeline stopped, effectively removing a significant portion of Libya’s domestic refining capacity. The abrupt cut in refined product supply typically pushes spot gasoline and diesel prices upward in the regional market, while crude prices may experience a modest decline due to reduced domestic demand....