Research preview

The latest Federal Open Market Committee briefing revealed that not a single member perceives downside risk to U.S. growth – a stance that has not been seen in at least fifteen years. For systematic investors, this rare consensus is a signal that market dynamics, risk premia, and model assumptions may be shifting in ways that deserve close scrutiny. The Economic Narrative Behind the Consensus When policymakers unanimously express confidence in growth, they implicitly endorse a view that real output will continue expanding without major headwinds. This translates into expectations of steady or rising corporate earnings, lower default rates, and a generally favorable environment for risk assets....