EUR/USD Clean Break Watch
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The catalyst mix is narrower than it first looks around inflation and growth data. EUR/USD has a mildly constructive news bias because the feed is leaning toward softer dollar expectations or firmer European currency demand, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and growth releases driving the repricing. That makes the technical map more important, not less important, because price still has to confirm the macro story.
- Dollar on back foot as softer US inflation dims Fed hike bets – Reuters (Reuters)
- Euro gives away gains as Eurozone Industrial Production disappoints – FXStreet (FXStreet)
- Euro Rises Against Dollar After U.S. Inflation Data — Market Talk – Moomoo (Moomoo)
- Euro at two-week highs as US inflation slows down – Economies.com (Economies.com)
- Euro Climbs Above $1.14 as Soft US Inflation Weakens Dollar – Forex Factory (Forex Factory)
- US Dollar Price Forecast: Cooling Inflation Challenges DXY – Are GBP/USD and EUR/USD Ready to Rally? – FXEmpire (FXEmpire)
- EUR/USD at 1.1435 after the US inflation surprise – London Business News (London Business News)
- EURUSD Analysis Euro gains momentum after US CPI – FOREX.com (FOREX.com)
- Nasdaq rebounds as cooling US inflation weighs on dollar – Yahoo Finance (Yahoo Finance)
- Dollar struggles after softer inflation blunts Fed hike bets By Reuters – Investing.com Canada (Investing.com Canada)
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI PPI, M/M% | HIGH | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI Personal Consumption | HIGH | 1.1% | ||
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% | HIGH | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 8.4 | 5.7 | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Refinery Usage | HIGH | 95.9% | 95.8% | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | -0.1 millions | -4.98 millions | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) | HIGH | -0.48 millions | ||
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | -0.3 millions | -1.904 millions | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | -0.9 millions | 2.998 millions | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) | HIGH | 411.357 millions | ||
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) | MEDIUM | 20.517 millions | ||
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) | MEDIUM | 212.062 millions |
Dollar And Cross-Market Filter
Dollar-index candles show the DXY proxy firming near 100.761 over the sampled window. A firming dollar can add pressure to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and silver, while a softer dollar can relieve it. This cross-market context is best read as confirmation rather than a standalone signal.
Opening Read
EUR/USD is near 1.14241 with a mixed directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is mixed, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.14138 support versus 1.14341 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD PPI PPI, M/M% at 15 Jul 12:30 UTC, awaited with consensus 0%, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
EUR/USD was trading near 1.14168 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at -0.06%. RSI14 is at 45.7, ATR14 is running near 0.00399, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16455. The last completed weekly candle was -0.28%, so the short-term setup should be read against the wider weekly context.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.14168 |
| D1 change | -0.06% |
| D1 RSI14 | 45.7 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00399 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14234 / 1.14802 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16455 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.28% |
Market read: RSI, moving averages, the daily close, and the completed weekly change are aligned here as context. The stronger signal still comes from price accepting or rejecting the support and resistance map below.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
The chart images were not available for this scan. Use the tables below for the level map.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.14188, with first resistance near 1.14625 and first support near 1.13754. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14175, with weekly R1 at 1.14472 and weekly S1 at 1.13743, giving traders a wider support and resistance framework for the session.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.14188 | 1.14625 | 1.15059 | 1.15496 | 1.13754 | 1.13317 | 1.12883 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14175 | 1.14472 | 1.14904 | 1.15201 | 1.13743 | 1.13446 | 1.13014 |
Trading context: daily pivots are more useful for session timing, while weekly pivots define the bigger support and resistance map. A clean EUR/USD break should hold above resistance or below support after the first reaction.
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
Charts, candles, pivots, indicators, calendar data, and headline links are used for market commentary and education only. This is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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