Home Analysis EUR/USD 1.14038 Bearish

EUR/USD 1.14038 Bearish

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EUR/USD 1.14038 Bearish

EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels

EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.14188, with first resistance near 1.14625 and first support near 1.13754. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14175, with weekly R1 at 1.14472 and weekly S1 at 1.13743, giving traders a wider support and resistance framework for the session.

Map PP R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
Daily pivot 1.14188 1.14625 1.15059 1.15496 1.13754 1.13317 1.12883
Weekly pivot 1.14175 1.14472 1.14904 1.15201 1.13743 1.13446 1.13014

Trading context: daily pivots are more useful for session timing, while weekly pivots define the bigger support and resistance map. A clean EUR/USD break should hold above resistance or below support after the first reaction.

Opening Read

EUR/USD is near 1.14158 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.14038 support versus 1.14260 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) at 15 Jul 14:30 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.

EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis

EUR/USD was trading near 1.14117 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at -0.11%. RSI14 is at 44.8, ATR14 is running near 0.00403, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16455. The last completed weekly candle was -0.28%, so the short-term setup should be read against the wider weekly context.

Indicator Reading
Latest D1 close 1.14117
D1 change -0.11%
D1 RSI14 44.8
D1 ATR14 0.00403
D1 EMA20 / EMA50 1.14229 / 1.14800
D1 MA200 1.16455
Momentum state EMA20 below EMA50
Completed W1 change -0.28%

Market read: RSI, moving averages, the daily close, and the completed weekly change are aligned here as context. The stronger signal still comes from price accepting or rejecting the support and resistance map below.

EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief

The catalyst mix is narrower than it first looks around inflation and growth data. EUR/USD has a mildly constructive news bias because the feed is leaning toward softer dollar expectations or firmer European currency demand, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and growth releases driving the repricing. The practical read is to treat the headlines as a catalyst layer and use the pivot map for confirmation.

  1. US Dollar Price Forecast: Cooling Inflation Challenges DXY – Are GBP/USD and EUR/USD Ready to Rally? – Yahoo Finance Singapore (Yahoo Finance Singapore)
  2. Dollar steadies as Middle East escalation counters soft US inflation – Reuters (Reuters)
  3. Euro gives away gains as Eurozone Industrial Production disappoints – FXStreet (FXStreet)
  4. Dollar on back foot as softer US inflation dims Fed hike bets By Reuters – Investing.com (Investing.com)
  5. Euro at two-week highs as US inflation slows down – Economies.com (Economies.com)
  6. Euro Climbs Above $1.14 as Soft US Inflation Weakens Dollar – Forex Factory (Forex Factory)
  7. EUR/USD at 1.1435 after the US inflation surprise – London Business News (London Business News)
  8. EURUSD Analysis Euro gains momentum after US CPI – FOREX.com (FOREX.com)
  9. Eurozone inflation slows more than expected; Euro weakens – equiti.com (equiti.com)
  10. Euro gains as softer US inflation weighs on US Dollar – FXStreet (FXStreet)

EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts

The chart images were not available for this scan. Use the tables below for the level map.

Dollar And Cross-Market Filter

Dollar-index candles show the DXY proxy firming near 100.772 over the sampled window. A firming dollar can add pressure to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, and silver, while a softer dollar can relieve it. This cross-market context is best read as confirmation rather than a standalone signal.

Fundamental Calendar

UTC Currency Event Impact Actual Consensus Previous
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) HIGH 411.357 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) HIGH -0.9 millions 2.998 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) HIGH -0.48 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) HIGH -0.1 millions -4.98 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Refinery Usage HIGH 95.9% 95.8%
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) HIGH -0.3 millions -1.904 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) MEDIUM 212.062 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) MEDIUM 20.517 millions
15 Jul 14:30 UTC USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks (Bbl) MEDIUM 103.619 millions
16 Jul 09:00 UTC EUR Foreign trade Trade Balance (EUR) MEDIUM -1 billions
16 Jul 09:00 UTC EUR Foreign trade Exports, Adj MEDIUM 3.2%
16 Jul 09:00 UTC EUR Foreign trade Trade Balance, Prev Yr (EUR) MEDIUM 8.7 billions

Risk And Invalidation

Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.

Charts, candles, pivots, indicators, calendar data, and headline links are used for market commentary and education only. This is not investment advice or a promise of returns.

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