A 255bp Wedge: Why USDJPY Stopped Following the Bond Market
Research preview
Rates have repriced; the yen has not. The US 10-year yields 5.24% and 2s10s sits at +45bp, yet USDJPY trades near 158.462 — roughly 255bp above its carry. That dislocation is the subject of this note: the curve, the two legs of the yen carry, and the levels with invalidation. The read: this is a repricing, not a forecast. USDJPY is 255bp rich to carry; the spread decides when that matters. What the US curve just did US 2s10s sits at +45bp — the 10-year at 5.242%, the 2-year at 4.791%....
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