EUR/USD At 1.13705: Momentum Turns

Research preview

Risk And Invalidation Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest. EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief The headline set is not neutral around central-bank policy, inflation, geopolitical risk, and commodity demand. EUR/USD has a mildly constructive news bias because the feed is leaning toward softer dollar expectations or firmer European currency demand, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure driving the repricing. The next test is whether candles and pivots accept that story or fade it after the first reaction. Markets are pricing a 1-in-3 chance of a july...