EUR/USD At 1.13756 with Trend in Focus
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) | HIGH | 411.675 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | 0.765 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | 2.01 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) | HIGH | 1.042 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | 1.395 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Refinery Usage | HIGH | 96.1% | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks (Bbl) | MEDIUM | 109.57 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) | MEDIUM | 211.294 millions | ||
| 29 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) | MEDIUM | 20.519 millions | ||
| 28 Jul 10:00 UTC | EUR | Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | -1.2% | |
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, Y/Y% | MEDIUM | 1.1% | 0.8% |
Opening Read
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13858 with a active, with the first reaction less important than the retest profile; the immediate question is whether price is building acceptance or merely reacting inside the existing range.
Price is holding above the daily pivot at 1.13841, which keeps the first read tilted toward resistance pressure rather than support repair. The working support band is 1.13756 / 1.13674 / 1.13566, while the resistance band is 1.13999 / 1.14090 / 1.14174. Daily R1 at 1.14015 and S1 at 1.13502 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13940, the one-day change at 0.22%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13858 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is mixed, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13756 support versus 1.13999 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) at 29 Jul 14:30 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The day's headlines lean into one main market question around commodity demand, central-bank policy, geopolitical risk, and risk sentiment. EUR/USD carries a cautious-to-lower news bias because the headlines point to dollar support or pressure on the European side of the pair, with central-bank expectations and commodity pressure behind the move. The practical read is to treat the headlines as a catalyst layer and use the pivot map for confirmation.
- Iraq generated revenues of $2.3b from oil sales in may and june.
- Libya unrest disrupts oil & gas operations civil unrest forced a halt to operations at libya's mellitah oil & gas complex after protesters stormed the facility. the shutdown disrupted key gas supply lines, prompting warnings of a potential regional blackout. mellitah is a critica.
- Iraq exported 32.1m bbl of oil over may and june -oil ministry.
- Iraq exported 32.1m bbl of oil over may and june: oil ministry.
- Kremlin says ukraine blew up germany's nord stream gas pipelines, hurt kazakhstan by attacking cpc pipeline infrastructure, and has now attacked an iranian ship.
- Boe allots 2.38bln in liquidity op, matching banks bids.
- Japan tsunami warning officially lifted – nhk.
- It's getting a lot harder for global brands to win in china. changing tastes and the challenge from new chinese rivals are forcing us and european companies including apple and starbucks to adopt new strategies to succeed in the world's second biggest economy.
- Us dollar is voting before the fed has spoken. right now, traders would rather own dollars against the risk of a hawkish fed than wait for the policy debate to be settled. the dollar remains firm despite limited movement in treasury yields, suggesting fx traders are taking the ri.
- Global chip selloff deepens chip stocks extended losses across asia after a sharp u.s. selloff, fueled by concerns over ai spending and china's technological progress. south korea's kospi plunged 10%, triggering two trading halts, while japan's nikkei fell 4%. u.s. chip stocks re.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13841, with first resistance near 1.14015 and first support near 1.13502. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14025, with weekly R1 at 1.14414 and weekly S1 at 1.13556, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13841 | 1.14015 | 1.14354 | 1.14528 | 1.13502 | 1.13328 | 1.12989 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14025 | 1.14414 | 1.14883 | 1.15272 | 1.13556 | 1.13167 | 1.12698 |
Range interpretation: EUR/USD is above the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward R1 at 1.14015. Weekly pivot 1.14025 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The technical evidence is concentrated around trend quality, volatility, and the position of price versus the moving-average stack. EUR/USD was trading near 1.14003 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at 0.27%. RSI14 is at 47.1, ATR14 is running near 0.00365, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16255. The weekly change of -0.29% is the larger backdrop, so the next daily close matters more than the first intraday reaction.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.14003 |
| D1 change | 0.27% |
| D1 RSI14 | 47.1 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00365 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14051 / 1.14492 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16255 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.29% |
Research read: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is balanced enough to make price levels decisive, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is still heavy. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.14003 against the daily pivot at 1.13841, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.14003 keeps the upside case alive while pullbacks stay controlled. The quality of the move depends on buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13839-1.14020 candle range, the recent sequence is still pressing higher, while price remains above pivot 1.13841. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.14003 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13531-1.14020 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains above pivot 1.13841. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.14003 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.13531-1.14181 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14025. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Scenario plan
| Scenario | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish continuation | D1 close above 1.13999, then retest holds. | Back below pivot 1.13841 |
| Range continuation | Price keeps rejecting both nearest support and resistance. | Clean D1 close outside the range |
| Bearish continuation | D1 close below 1.13756, then failed retest. | Back above pivot 1.13841 |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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