EUR/USD Distribution Under 1.13540
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 10:00 UTC | EUR | Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% | MEDIUM | -1.2% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.7% | ||
| 28 Jul 13:00 UTC | USD | S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices National Idx, Y/Y% | MEDIUM | 0.8% | ||
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 5.5 | 4 | |
| 28 Jul 14:00 UTC | USD | Consumer Confidence Index Cons Conf Idx | MEDIUM | 92 | 91.2 | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Durable Goods-SA, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | 2.1% | -4.5% |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 1.9% | 0.3% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.9% | 1.6% | |
| 27 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Advance Report on Durable Goods Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% | MEDIUM | 0.3% | -4.6% |
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The linked stories point to a market that is reacting mainly to around inflation, central-bank policy, and geopolitical risk. EUR/USD is not getting a clean directional push from the headlines; the bias is neutral-to-range until the next candle confirms acceptance above resistance or below support. That makes the technical map more important, not less important, because price still has to confirm the macro story.
- Boj: core cpi excluding special factors rises 2.7% in june after may increase of 2.7%.
- Us dollar bullish as tech pulls back ahead of fed. gm all we saw another fresh sell-off in technology stocks yesterday, which pushed the broader stock market lower. it looks like there is some uncertainty ahead of tomorrow s fed interest rate decision. as you know, there is a cha.
- Fed dissents could signal september hike investors are watching this week's fed vote for clues on interest rates. a 10-2 split is expected, with two officials backing a 25bp rate hike. if more than three members dissent, it could signal growing support for a september hike. still.
- Market awaits the fed decision: what s next for us dollar, gold, and oil?. hello, dear traders! today is tuesday, july 28, 2026, and we re going to walk through the key events that will shape currency market dynamics over the coming days. let s start with the us dollar. expectati.
- Japan s underlying inflation gauge shows 2.0% annual rise in june, boj says.
- Rba governor bullock: the board remains willing to increase interest rates further if inflationary pressures do not ease as expected.
- Japan earthquake has preliminary magnitude of 7.1 nied tsunami warning has been issued; warning of 1m.
- Germany maps china s weaknesses in preparation for a trade war.
- Dollar finds support as risk appetite wanes. a day before the uncertain fed meeting and the first batch of this week s technology earnings reports from microsoft (nasdaq:) and meta (nasdaq:), risk assets are in retreat. following last week s mixed tech earnings, the lingering con.
- Tsunami warning of 1 metre issued after japan earthquake – nhk japan earthquake has preliminary magnitude of 7.1 – nied tsunami warning issued after japan earthquake – nhk – *walter bloomberg.
Model And Price Read
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13648 with a firm enough to watch closely, but not strong enough to ignore invalidation profile; the market is moving from signal discovery into confirmation.
Price is trading below the daily pivot at 1.13841, which leaves the first read vulnerable unless the pivot is reclaimed. The working support band is 1.13540 / 1.13333 / 1.13245, while the resistance band is 1.13759 / 1.13851 / 1.13951. Daily R1 at 1.14015 and S1 at 1.13502 define the first tactical range.
Internal models have flipped from Sell to Strong Sell for EUR/USD. The shift puts downside continuation in focus, with price near 1.13633, the one-day change at -0.05%, and the active day range between n/a and n/a. The trade read still needs confirmation from candles, pivots, and headline risk; a move back into the prior balance would weaken the signal. EUR/USD is near 1.13648 with a bearish directional tone. H1 is bearish, H4 is bearish, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.13540 support versus 1.13759 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is EUR Claimant count and job advertisements collected by France Travail Unemployed, Q/Q% at 28 Jul 10:00 UTC, awaited with consensus n/a, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
Research focus: internal model flip: Sell to Strong Sell. A high-quality setup needs the internal model read, pivot behaviour, candle close, and calendar risk to point in the same direction.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.13648 against the daily pivot at 1.13841, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
On H1 with price near 1.13648 is more useful as a level map than a momentum signal for now. The quality of the move depends on sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13632-1.13734 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. A stronger read requires the next hourly close should either defend the reaction zone or expose a false start; Against the level map, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
The session candle with price near 1.13648 shows rebounds being judged more harshly. The important tell is sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13616-1.13801 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.13841. The bias earns more weight through the daily close has to validate the intraday reaction before the trade read improves; For the trade suggestion, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
Weekly structure with price near 1.13648 keeps seller pressure in focus. The desk is watching sellers closed the latest candle below its open inside a 1.13616-1.14181 candle range, the recent sequence is still leaning lower, while price remains below pivot 1.14025. The next useful filter is weekly acceptance matters more than the first candle impulse; From a risk-control angle, a break back through the working pivot area would weaken the setup.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
The pivot map is the main execution framework for this report. EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.13841, with first resistance near 1.14015 and first support near 1.13502. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14025, with weekly R1 at 1.14414 and weekly S1 at 1.13556, giving the session a wider support and resistance framework.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.13841 | 1.14015 | 1.14354 | 1.14528 | 1.13502 | 1.13328 | 1.12989 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14025 | 1.14414 | 1.14883 | 1.15272 | 1.13556 | 1.13167 | 1.12698 |
Execution context: EUR/USD is below the daily pivot, so the first quality test is whether price can hold through a retest and then work toward S1 at 1.13502. Weekly pivot 1.14025 is the higher-timeframe checkpoint. A clean break should hold beyond the level after the first reaction, otherwise the move remains vulnerable to mean reversion.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
The indicator table points to where conviction is improving and where the setup still needs confirmation. EUR/USD was trading near 1.13648 on the latest D1 snapshot, with the D1 move at -0.04%. RSI14 is at 39.0, ATR14 is running near 0.00343, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16253. The last completed weekly candle was -0.29%, which keeps the short-term read tied to the broader weekly range.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.13648 |
| D1 change | -0.04% |
| D1 RSI14 | 39.0 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00343 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14017 / 1.14478 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16253 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.29% |
Desk read: EUR/USD has a ema20 below ema50 profile; momentum is soft and still needs repair, the short moving-average stack still argues for caution, and weekly pressure is still heavy. The higher-conviction signal still requires price to accept the next support or resistance zone after the first reaction.
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
This research note is market commentary and education only. It is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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