EUR/USD 1.14120-1.14337
EUR/USD News And Catalyst Brief
The headline set is not neutral around inflation and dollar direction. EUR/USD has a mildly constructive news bias because the feed is leaning toward softer dollar expectations or firmer European currency demand, with inflation data, central-bank expectations, and commodity pressure driving the repricing. The next test is whether candles and pivots accept that story or fade it after the first reaction.
- Dollar slips after soft US inflation data – Reuters (Reuters)
- Euro picks up favoured by a weaker US Dollar but remains within previous ranges – FXStreet (FXStreet)
- Euro at two-week highs as US inflation slows down – Economies.com (Economies.com)
- Euro Climbs Above $1.14 as Soft US Inflation Weakens Dollar – Forex Factory (Forex Factory)
- US Dollar Price Forecast: Cooling Inflation Challenges DXY – Are GBP/USD and EUR/USD Ready to Rally? – FXEmpire (FXEmpire)
- EUR/USD at 1.1435 after the US inflation surprise – London Business News (London Business News)
- Dollar struggles as softer inflation dims Fed hike bets – Y100 WNCY (Y100 WNCY)
- EUR/USD forecast: Rising energy prices strengthen US dollar as downside risks for euro grows – FOREX.com (FOREX.com)
- Euro Rebounds as Dollar Weakens on Soft US Inflation – TradingView (TradingView)
- Dollar struggles after softer inflation blunts Fed hike bets By Reuters – Investing.com Canada (Investing.com Canada)
Opening Read
EUR/USD is near 1.14233 with a mixed directional tone. H1 is mixed, H4 is mixed, and D1 is bearish. The useful decision area is 1.14120 support versus 1.14337 resistance; wait for a close and retest before treating the move as tradable. The next macro risk is USD PPI Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% at 15 Jul 12:30 UTC, awaited with consensus 0.3%, so confirmation around the level matters more than the first spike.
EUR/USD Hourly, Daily And Weekly Candle Charts
EUR/USD is trading near 1.14241 against the daily pivot at 1.14188, so the chart set below separates the intraday reaction from the daily close and the wider weekly position.
H1 price action is holding firmer: buyers held the latest candle above its open inside a 1.14210-1.14273 candle range, the recent sequence is compressed and two-sided, and price remains above pivot 1.14188.
D1 price action is under pressure and still level-dependent: latest close 1.14241 (0.00% from the prior candle), sellers closed the latest candle below its open, and price remains above pivot 1.14188.
W1 price action keeps the broader context heavy: the recent sequence is still leaning lower, with the current close near 1.14241 and price remains above pivot 1.14175.
EUR/USD Technical Indicator Analysis
EUR/USD was trading near 1.14241 on the latest D1 snapshot, leaving the D1 move little changed. RSI14 is at 47.2, ATR14 is running near 0.00396, and EMA20 remains below EMA50, with the 200-day average at 1.16455. The last completed weekly candle was -0.28%, so the short-term setup should be read against the wider weekly context.
| Indicator | Reading |
|---|---|
| Latest D1 close | 1.14241 |
| D1 change | 0.00% |
| D1 RSI14 | 47.2 |
| D1 ATR14 | 0.00396 |
| D1 EMA20 / EMA50 | 1.14241 / 1.14805 |
| D1 MA200 | 1.16455 |
| Momentum state | EMA20 below EMA50 |
| Completed W1 change | -0.28% |
Market read: RSI, moving averages, the daily close, and the completed weekly change are aligned here as context. The stronger signal still comes from price accepting or rejecting the support and resistance map below.
EUR/USD Pivot And Support Resistance Levels
EUR/USD is mapped against a daily pivot at 1.14188, with first resistance near 1.14625 and first support near 1.13754. The weekly pivot sits at 1.14175, with weekly R1 at 1.14472 and weekly S1 at 1.13743, giving traders a wider support and resistance framework for the session.
| Map | PP | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily pivot | 1.14188 | 1.14625 | 1.15059 | 1.15496 | 1.13754 | 1.13317 | 1.12883 |
| Weekly pivot | 1.14175 | 1.14472 | 1.14904 | 1.15201 | 1.13743 | 1.13446 | 1.13014 |
Trading context: daily pivots are more useful for session timing, while weekly pivots define the bigger support and resistance map. A clean EUR/USD break should hold above resistance or below support after the first reaction.
Fundamental Calendar
| UTC | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% | HIGH | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI PPI, M/M% | HIGH | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | PPI Personal Consumption | HIGH | 1.1% | ||
| 15 Jul 12:30 UTC | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Survey Mfg Idx | MEDIUM | 8.4 | 5.7 | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Refinery Usage | HIGH | 95.9% | 95.8% | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | -0.1 millions | -4.98 millions | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) | HIGH | -0.48 millions | ||
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | -0.9 millions | 2.998 millions | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) | HIGH | -0.3 millions | -1.904 millions | |
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) | HIGH | 411.357 millions | ||
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) | MEDIUM | 212.062 millions | ||
| 15 Jul 14:30 UTC | USD | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Distillate Stocks (Bbl) | MEDIUM | 103.619 millions |
Risk And Invalidation
Risk remains level-led. The invalidation level matters more than the headline bias; reduce size around data releases and avoid treating the first reaction as confirmation without a retest.
Charts, candles, pivots, indicators, calendar data, and headline links are used for market commentary and education only. This is not investment advice or a promise of returns.
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