Research preview

The recent warning from Iran’s leadership that its forces will push enemy vessels out of the Arabian Sea adds a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to oil‑related assets. For quantitative traders, the challenge is to translate such narrative risk into measurable signals that can be incorporated into high‑dimensional models without falling prey to over‑fitting. This article shows how to build a robust pipeline that blends macro news, shipping data, and machine‑learning techniques taught in advanced finance courses. From Narrative to Data: Turning a Geopolitical Event into Predictors The first step is to identify observable variables that capture the essence of the Hormuz threat....