Research preview

Moderna’s shares have been warned to plunge dramatically, raising alarm for traders and investors. This article shows how high‑dimensional machine‑learning tools can be applied to assess the risk, extract signals from large data sets, and build more robust trading strategies when a single stock faces extreme moves. Why a Simple Regression Fails in Extreme Events A traditional linear regression that relates Moderna’s price to a handful of fundamentals—sales, pipeline size, and a few macro variables—may fit the recent data well. In‑sample, the model can explain most of the variation because it is free to use many coefficients....