Research preview

The International Energy Agency’s recent endorsement to speed up the release of roughly 100 million barrels of oil slated for March 2026 will add significant supply to global markets. Understanding the price mechanics and timing nuances of this event is essential for quantitative traders who seek to capture volatility and adjust risk models. Supply Shock and Price Elasticity When a large volume of a commodity enters the market, the immediate effect on price depends on the market’s elasticity. In the oil market, a 100 million‑barrel addition represents a modest share of daily global consumption—approximately 1 % of the 100 million barrels traded each day....