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Recent violence in the northern West Bank, where tear‑gas attacks ignited olive groves, has sent shockwaves through commodity and agricultural markets. The sudden loss of harvests and the humanitarian toll create a volatile environment that challenges risk models and highlights a classic pitfall: mistaking in‑sample fit for genuine predictive power. The Market Reaction to Sudden Supply Shocks When a localized conflict destroys a crop, the immediate market response is a spike in the price of the affected commodity. Traders observe a rapid increase in the spot price of olives and related products, followed by heightened volatility in futures contracts tied to agricultural indices....