Research preview

A recent violent incident in Khartoum, following accusations of a cross‑border airstrike, illustrates how sudden geopolitical risk can ripple through financial markets. For quantitative traders, translating such news into actionable signals demands rigorous statistical tools and a clear view of transaction costs that erode raw predictive edges. From News to Numbers: Quantifying Event‑Driven Signals When an unexpected geopolitical flashpoint emerges, price data often exhibit abrupt spikes in volatility and rapid shifts in correlation structures. The first step is to isolate the market reaction window—typically the minutes to hours surrounding the headline....