Research preview

Niger’s sudden prohibition on diesel and premium petrol exports has sent shockwaves through regional commodity markets. The policy, which prioritises domestic consumption while allowing limited surplus sales under special permits, creates price dislocations that quantitative traders can capture with disciplined, data‑driven strategies. Understanding the Supply Shock The export ban removes a significant volume of Nigerien diesel and premium petrol from the international market. When a supply source disappears, the immediate effect is a left‑ward shift in the supply curve for the affected grades. Prices in neighboring markets—particularly those that previously relied on Nigerish shipments—tend to rise until new suppliers fill the gap or demand contracts....