The Bond Reset: Curve Normalisation and the 253bp USDJPY Gap
Research preview
US 2s10s has normalised to +48bp with the 10-year at 5.30%, and it steepened from the long end — the least friendly version for risk. USDJPY has not followed: it trades near 157.726, roughly 253bp above its carry. This note maps the curve, the yen carry, and the trades. The read: USDJPY is 253bp expensive to rates. That defines the asymmetry, not the timing; pay-up is now the crowded side. Reading the US curve today US 2s10s sits at +48bp — the 10-year at 5.303%, the 2-year at 4.827%....
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