From Inversion to Repricing: What the Bond Market Just Told the Yen
Research preview
The long end repriced. US 10-year yields are at 5.08%, the 2s10s spread sits at +37bp, and the yen crosses have not adjusted. USDJPY is the clearest example — roughly 262bp above its 10-year carry. This note reads the curve, the carry, and the trade as one. The read: the curve repriced from the long end, the yen has not, and USDJPY is the clearest expression — roughly 262bp rich to carry. The risk is timing, not direction. The US curve: level, slope, mechanism US 2s10s sits at +37bp — the 10-year at 5.081%, the 2-year at 4.715%....
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